A recent U.S. Grains Council Chart of the Week shows the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) projections for changes in corn export patterns over the coming ten years based on the recently released USDA Agricultural Long-Term Projections to 2022. The United States, former Soviet Union, Argentina, and South Africa are expected to increase export volume. The EU, Brazil, and other current exporters are projected to experience a net decline.
The blue columns show corn exports for each major supplier for the 2011/12 marketing year. The red bars show expected growth in exports over the next decade. USDA projects that by 2022/23, total world corn exports will grow by 28 million metric tons, up 25 percent, from 111 million tons to 139 million tons.
The United States is expected to account for 24 million tons (71 percent) of the 34 million tons increase by the four leading exporters: the United States, Former Soviet Union (mainly Ukraine), Argentina and South Africa. Exports are expected to decline from the EU, Brazil and other suppliers by almost 6 million tons.
Compared to corn exports in 2011/12, U.S. exports are expected to grow 62 percent, while Ukraine and Argentina’s corn exports will be up 26 percent and 24 percent respectively. On the other hand, Brazil’s exports are expected to decline by 2.4 million tons or 11 percent.
The United States will continue to be the leading corn exporter to the world, boosting U.S. farmer incomes and responding to the food demands from the growing global middle class.